PREDICTING FUTURE TRENDS

Predicting future world trends is largely based on a good general knowledge and understanding of present events.  It also helps to have a working knowledge of the longterm interests of the global military industrial complex [MIC] whose members loosely rule the world between them.  Right now the US is their nominal centre, but China is competing hard for their patronage.  Regardless of who wins the super-power race, the control always remains with the MIC, and how they protect and progress their interests drives what happens in the world, including the Pacific where the Trans-Pacific partnership [TPP] is their engine room. 

In 2013, on the global scene, I predict the following:

The MIC will allow US-Chinese relations to worsen in a fight for fossil fuels as well as the status of super-power of the 21st century.  Much the same way as India was used against Pakistan from 1954 onwards, the US is already creating enemies for China, including Japan, the Phillipines and Indonesia, and even Thailand.  All of these countries are looking for offshore oil while the US is moving towards self-sufficiency through domestic fracking to release liquid natural gas [LNG].  In fact, part of the TPP’s purpose is  to establish LNG markets around the Pacific because the MIC are not yet done with fossil fuels.

Meanwhile China already has fairly close ties throughout the Pacific; Western Samoa and Fiji come to mind.  In 2013 we will see Tonga, the Cook Islands, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands either added to China’s stable, or being assiduously wooed to do so.  Although the US maintains a hold on Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Hawaii and American Samoa, a significant reason for its renewed focus on the TPP is driven by the realisation that it has lost a large part of the heart of the Pacific to China in the past decade.  Eventually every nation will have to align with one or the other of these two super-powers, and the configuration of those alignments will define the Cold War of the current century.

Instead of investing in true alternatives to fossil fuels, the MIC will also promote and fund the increased use of fracking to move the world's economies from reliance on petroleum to dependence on natural gas.  However, they will still need high octane military fuels.  Therefore in the Middle East, now that Iraq and Libya have fallen into their hands, Iran and its oilfields will be the next to fall.  That will temporarily satisfy them until later in the decade, which is when Syria will fall.

In Europe the only economy with any robustness is Germany, but it needs cheap energy.  Conveniently Russia lies on its borders with all the energy required, with pipelines from the northern territories through to Afghanistan, and with plenty of labour which is both skilled and cheap.  Therefore we’ll see a lot of that Russian energy redirected to Germany from 2013 onwards so that the MIC can continue to harvest Europe's human and material resources using German capital and Russian energy.

As wildcards I predict that the US Supreme Court will rule same sex marriage is constitutionally protected, and the US itself will move closer to being in a state of perpetual armed conflict within its own borders. 

Locally I predict that:

The Trans-Pacific partnership will be signed by New Zealand, Australia,  Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Canada, Malaysia, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Mexico, and the United States in 2013.  And within the decade our laws and courts will be aligned with what the MIC wants.  

Japan has expressed its desire to become a negotiating partner, and South Korea has been officially invited to join the negotiations.  So by the end of this decade the TPP will have Americanised the Pacific Rim the same way that the Monroe Doctrine did Southeast Asia.  That region itself will continue to grow and be an important partner for the US, to the exclusion of China.  As a result, also by the end of this decade, every Pacific country will either be part of the US or the Chinese economy. 

Water resources and food production will increasingly come under the MIC’s control in 2013.  There are few industries that can operate without power and water, and all the MIC need do to control our domestic industries and markets is ensure its political puppets place water bans at strategic times and places.  By the end of the decade commerical food production in this country will be completely corporatised.  That, combined with global warming will continue to drive food prices up in 2013 and beyond.  As a result, over the next decade food will become a currency in itself and the percentage of income spent on it, especially on protiens, will increase sharply.  In fact NZ-grown produce will continue to be cheaper for overseas markets than for those at home.   

Fulltime paid employment will continue to be a problem 2013 and thereafter.  High unemployment means there will be more people in part-time work, which in turn will kill most people’s hopes of home ownership.  By the end of the decade we will have become a rentier society.

Treaty settlements will continue being signed at a great rate in 2013, and iwi will continue to struggle to rebuild an economy off them and restore their people to a semblance of wellbeing while at the same time avoid making overly rash investments or overly conservative ones.  For example, the impact of inflation on current rates of return means that bank investments are losing value at an average of 1 – 3% per annum.  So the longer settling iwi keep their money in the bank, the more it will lose value.  But of course most won’t keep their money in the bank, especially those who are promising that the settlements represent a giant leap forward for their people’s social, educational and enviromental outcomes.  In any event, little or none of the cash will find its way down to the hapū and whānau, anymore than the fisheries’ settlement moneys did.  Also the need for Iwi to appeal to ever higher tiers of judiciary will continue to eat into cash reserves because, if they are to fight the Crown through its own courts, how else can they finance that fight?  Forcing Iwi to litigate against its political puppets is a deliberate MIC strategy which costs claimants hugely.  Within ten years most post-settlment governance entities (PSGEs) will be bankrupt or controlled by the MIC.

Education reform is certain and the sector will continue to be a battleground in 2013.  Within ten years MIC corporates will have set up Charter schools where the best teachers, sick of novapay glitches and workplace unrest, will flock to teach. 

The building of a US Marine training facility will be announced in 2013, and within ten years our servicemen will be serving in Guantanamo on a rotation basis and our nuclear-free zone will be either gone or honoured in the breach. 

ACC will be privatised and by the end of the decade our health care will also be in the hands of the MIC. 

The government will make kiwi-saver compulsory so that the retirement age doesn’t go up until the MIC insists on it. 

My wildcard local predictions are that there will be a number of natural disasters throughout the year, the MIC  will ensure that one of the big Australian banks disappears, and John Key won’t see this term out because, having done the damage for the MIC, he’ll be allowed to profit from his work for them.  

This is my final post for 2012, and my final prediction of future trends from 2013 onwards is that those whānau who get out of material debt, off the MIC grid, and into communion with the God of their understanding will do just fine. 

Ngā mihi mo te ra whānau a Ihu Karaiti ki a tātou katoa.

LAND OF THE BLIND

Land of the Blind is a dark political satire based on several incidents throughout history in which tyrannical rulers were overthrown by new leaders who proved to be just as bad, if not worse. The title is taken from the saying, "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king." It’s a metaphor for leadership based less on talent and more on lack.

I thought of that saying last month when Haami Piripi claimed that Margaret Mutu had told the Waitangi Tribunal Ōkakewai marae didn’t exist.  The truth of who said that can be heard 2 hours 7 minutes and 46 seconds into this recording of day 5, session 1 at Ngāti Kahu’s recent Tribunal hearings http://ngatikahu.iwi.nz/sites/default/files/Ng%C4%81ti%20Kahu%20Hearing%20-%20Day%205%20Session%201.mp3, and it wasn’t Margaret or anyone from Ngāti Kahu.

The above saying came to mind again last week when Mangu Awarau accused Ngāti Kahu of a ‘selfish campaign to increase their share of the settlement.’  The falseness of Mangu’s claim can be seen by comparing the agreements in principle reached by the Crown with Te Aupōuri in 2004, Te Rarawa in 2007 and Ngāti Kahu in 2008. 

In the Crown’s recent deeds of settlement Te Aupōuri went from $12m in 2004 to $21.040m in 2011, Te Rarawa went from $20m in 2007 to $33.840m in 2012, and Ngāi Takoto went from $0 to $21,040m.  Although the gaining of those settlement dollars was not worth the cession of mana and sovereignty required, good on those iwi for their gains.  But for Mangu to ignore where those gains originated and to instead accuse Ngāti Kahu of selfishness shows a sad lack. 

As for his claim that Ngāti Kahu failed to ‘front up to meetings, respond to phone calls and emails,’ he’s not only lacking, he’s wrong.  Unlike him Ngāti Kahu’s leaders go to every hui they agree to attend and record in writing the statements and positions they’ve been instructed by their people to make and take.  The fact that the Crown and he chose to ignore what Ngāti Kahu said, especially with regard to Rangiāniwaniwa, Te Make, Hukatere, Kaimaumau and Kaitāia, is another example of lack.  So too is his statement that Ngāti Kahu has been ‘dealt a harsh reminder of reality’ because the Tribunal has declined to hear its urgent application against those Crown deeds.  No wonder the Crown gets away with its pissant settlements when so-called leaders like Mangu accept a wrong decision as harsh reality rather than see it as worthy of being challenged. 

In his novel ‘Country of the Blind’ H. G. Wells tells of a mountaineer who falls down a mountain and arrives in a country where sight has been completely lost over time through a genetic disease. Seeing an opportunity to take advantage of the citizens, he recites the above quote over and over.  But the citizens other senses have sharpened and, having never experienced sight, they perceive him as either a madman or one with an overactive imagination. At any rate, he never gets to be their king.  Ka aroha kia ia mo tana hao nui kapō. 

THE FAR HORIZON

When you’re on the open ocean for days on end without instruments or landmarks, you need a wayfinder who can at least read signs like sunrise, which way swells are running in relation to that, kei hea ngā tāwake, ngā whetu, me ngā mea.  The very best wayfinders are those who, even blind, can sense the different swell patterns moving under the waka and always know the direction they’re moving in. 

Although most of us will never know how to navigate a waka, the principles that get it and its crew from one point to another are the same ones that get us and our whānau through life.  And for that we do have the necessary knowledge, either as individuals, whānau or hapū.

When my grampa was young his mother launched him towards a horizon in which Prime Ministerial office figured.  But instead he met my nanna and set his own course elsewhere.  Even though his destination was not the one she had in sight, his mother had shown him the horizon existed, and he did the rest.  Teaching tamāriki that the horizon exists and giving them the goods to get there is the job of whānau.  Let us do it.

When the kaka hits the kōwhiuwhiu, depending on what skills, knowledge and qualities are needed, my whānau know who turn to.  If it’s diplomacy, then it wouldn’t be me – but there is always someone.  And even when we do have to go outside ourselves, e.g. to a lawyer to navigate the complexities of probate, we hang onto the hoe tere and add the knowledge to our navigation chart.  Knowledge of what’s needed to get to a particular point on the horizon belongs to whānau.  Let us use it.

At age two my kōtiro had a fall that left her looking like a ngāngara.  When he saw her, one of my uncles demanded to know if she’d been hit and, if not, please explain!  I was blown away with gratitude that he was watching and willing to intervene in the course of her life. Storms on the horizon of one whānau can be seen by others within the hapū. Let us act on it.

On Saturday morning there was a White Ribbon concert in Kaitāia aimed at curbing family violence.  Awesome.  But unless whānau did the mahi, used their knowledge and acted on what they sensed, the horizon didn’t change for all those who got the bash on Saturday night.  Enjoy the initiatives that come in from outside, but don’t lose sight of the horizon.

In the great uncharted course of life the most desirable destination for us and our whānau is heaven, however we define that.  We won’t always physically see the horizon or the hazards between us and it.  But we can always call on wisdom and te wairua tapu to help us sense what’s going on in our whānau and keep it moving in the right direction.  Haerenga mīharo!

EXPERIENCE, STRENGTH AND HOPE

When I hold my pre-school mokopuna I do not want to believe anyone could ever hit their beautiful little bodies hard enough to rip their inner organs in half. When I look upon my grandsons I do not want to imagine them being groomed and manipulated by an adult they trust and admire for that adult’s sexual gratification.

Even to think or write of such things sickens and saddens me. And yet happen they did to children from this area, and happening they likely still are – to someone somewhere. So, apart from helping me process the unwanted and unimaginable, my emotions aren’t a lot of use. What then can I do or say that is of use? Only share my own experience, strength and hope. That’s all. Take what you can use from it and and leave the rest.

To begin, in my experience the main threats to our children’s safety are the presence of one or more of three things; alcohol and drugs, multiple partners, poor or no tikanga mātua whāngai.

Human beings plus alcohol always struck me as a very unattractive mix. I never saw it improve even the nicest adult, including me. When dak and other drugs came on the scene the mix just got uglier. As a parent, I chose not to bring any of them into the life of my uri. I’ve never regretted that choice.

Nor have I ever regretted the choice I made as a young solo mother to be very picky about who I let into her life.  I saw too many of my mates’ tamariki learn to love a new “uncle” or “daddy” only to have him abuse them or their mum (or both) and then leave for a prison cell or another woman.

In my experience there are more good people than bad ones in this world, but I made sure to teach my girl about “good touch, bad touch”.  And I didn’t pussyfoot around with euphemisms either.  I told it straight and made sure she understood, even though she sometimes blushed. 

Nor did I hesitate if I sensed a threat.  I happily promised to flatten the teacher who took her, without my permission, from her class at one school to a course at another.  He never did it again.  Nor did the church leader I similarly warned for interviewing her without my knowledge. She was embarassed. But so what?  No-one ever died of embarassment.  I apologised to the teacher who later proved to be OK.  I never felt the need to apologise to the church leader.   

I made lots of mistakes as a parent, but I thank God that I never erred on the side of an abuser.

Tēnā ko tēnei, ka he i tētahi tāngata tētahi o ēnei mea nonohi e whakapono nei ki ahau, nui ke te pai ki a ia me i whakawerewerea ki tōna kakī te kōhatu mira kaihe, me i pungaia ia ki te rire o te moana. [Matthew 18:6]

DEFINING SUCCESS

Years ago I took part in a focus group on cultural definitions of success, and shared a bit about growing up in Pawarenga where life followed a loose pattern largely centred round whakapono and whānau, seasons and cycles.  Droning karakia; these bookended all our days.  Thursday fishing, meatless Friday, Saturday on the back of Kaea Samson’s cream truck going to Broadwood for JMB, Sunday singing in church; these marked our weeks.  Tupu beds and pataka stores, garden slavery and bush freedom, black taraire-stained teeth and green river swims, chilblained feet and tapa legs, pet calves and roast beef dinners, bee sting orchards and bottled summerfruits; these bracketed our months and years.  And through it all sounded the eternal roar of the coast.

Our story starts with Thursdays.  That was the day when horses were saddled, split pikau made of sugar bags loaded with takakau, butter, salt and flasks of tea, and off to the coast the riders would go.  Kids who showed promise as divers got taken along.  If kutai was the goal, you hung on while the horse was swum across the Kawhi to the easier pickings from the Whangape side.  If it was crayfish or paua, you faced the thrill of meeting the kaingāra that lurked in the clefts waiting for your paua-seeking hand.  If it was fish off Taupeke, you had the return climb up to the Golden Stairs hanging on to the rider’s waist while the bulk of you dangled off the back of the horse with nothing but the strength in your skinny kid arms to keep you from the rocks below.  In theory, if you did slip, you had two last chances to grab on to before saying haere ra to this cruel world – the crupper and the horse’s tail.  Noone I knew ever died.  What fun. 

Caught fish were kept in rock pools till home time.  Hunger was satisfied with slices off one of them swished in saltwater, layered on buttered takakau with maybe a bit more salt and some kutai, raw or steamed on a piece of iron.  When washed down with strong tea to the accompaniment of our puku pākehā sister’s moaning that we were worse than cannibals, nothing ever tasted sweeter!

The homeward trip always started with bulging pikau sacks that slowly deflated at the kainga of any kuia, kaumātua, pouaru or pani and ended when every kainga in both valleys had enough kaimoana for Friday’s meals. 

Those olden days weren’t all good and golden but they taught us that wherever we go and whatever we do, we’ve got to bring back enough to drop off a feed to those in need. 

That tikanga still happens in Pawarenga today and it has helped us survive much worse dangers than marauding morays or falling off horses.  It is now also used around the world as a cultural metaphor for success when evaluating research projects.

DIVIDE AND RULE

Every time I fly out of Kaitāia airport I always look at how the land has been divided up by the Crown and I have George Erstich and his sister Katie Evans in my mind.  You see the land at Rangiāniwaniwa was actually confiscated by the Crown off their mother Kataraina Mātenga during the Second World War.  At 84 and 81 years old respectively, they are her last surviving children and they belong to the Ngāti Kahu hapū of Patukōraha.

The Crown still has no title over that land, but it has benefited time and time again from its theft.  Now the Crown is about to benefit again because, unfortunately for Kataraina’s uri, it has gotten some of their Ngāi Takoto cousins to agree to buy their land from it. 

Last month Katie Evans (Kataraina Matenga’s daughter) and Yvonne Pūriri (Kataraina’s mokopuna) presented evidence on their own marae Kareponia about how Rangiāniwaniwa was stolen from them by the Crown and that they want it returned to them via Ngāti Kahu.  But the Tribunal has since ruled that the Crown gets to determine who it allocates lands to under its settlement processes.  So the only way the descendants of Kataraina Matenga will be able to get their land back is if Ngāti Kahu settles with and cedes the sovereignty of its hapū to the Crown.  That is not going to happen.

On Saturday 27^th October the overwhelming majority of Ngāti Kahu hapū directed that a judicial review be sought in the High Court against the Tribunal’s decision to deny Ngāti Kahu a hearing over the Crown’s deeds of settlement with Te Aupōuri, Te Rarawa and Ngāi Takoto. 

If left as they are those deeds will settle thousands of acres of Te Paatu, Tahaawai, Ngāi Tohianga and Patukōraha hapū lands in iwi corporate bodies that don’t represent them and have never benefited them.  As one of the kaumātua at the hui said, it’s not about what the hapū, particularly Te Paatu, stand to gain so much as what they stand to lose.

Sadly the Crown has not only divided the land, it’s done it to the people as well.  On Saturday, two marae voted against the funding of the judicial review from their share of any annual grant, even though their particular marae stand to gain the most from it.  Is it possible that they would prefer to be ruled by the Crown then be united with the rūnanga?  

All of this surely is stark evidence of how the Crown’s settlement processes add to the grievances and the prejudice rather than remove or fix them.

BEING A WOMAN

My sister recently told me she dines out on my reputation as the second most-hated woman in the north.  Guess who is apparently number one on her informant’s list?  My initial response was to ask her to tell him to get it right, my gender has nothing to do with it, but then I corrected myself.  Certainly my gender shouldn’t have anything to do with it.  Engari, the record does indicate otherwise. 

In the 1990s when I lead Te Rarawa’s land claims, the messages ranged from mild to malevolent.  I got told, “The problem with your iwi is that it’s lead by a woman,” and had all the usual animal labels hurled my way; and that was just on iwi talkback.  The late night calls to my home number were nowhere near as nice and revealed very unhealthy male attitudes towards sex and sexuality.  Although I never responded in kind, I felt soiled by those callers.  It was as if they’d reached through the phone line and left dirty fingerprints on my spirit. 

Not a lot has changed since.  In fact in some ways the situation has gotten worse because the violators are now often as not actively supported by their women. 

I have a mate who leads her iwi.  Throughout 2009 she used to regularly get phone calls on her home phone from a male counterpart of another iwi who held a high position on an iwi forum.  When she refused to bow to his directions, which ran counter to those of her people, the content of those calls became unprintable and often targeted her gender.  When a complaint was laid with the forum by her people, apart from the few women leaders on there, the uniform response from the men was to keep him in his high position.  In fact it wasn’t until he upset one of her male iwi members that they finally removed him.  But the worse thing was that his partner, a woman who had intimate experience of his violence, defended him ferociously and blamed my mate. 

Now that we’re both married, neither she nor I get those kinds of calls at our homes any longer.  But we still get the messages outside hui, in car parks, on facebook and anywhere anonymous or opaque, that what is most offensive to a number of our detractors is our womanhood. 

Pākehā label this dis-ease with women “sexism” and respond with “feminism”.  I call it colonialised cowardice and respond with laughter.  I have recently started advising such men to grow themselves a female reproductive part because, in the words of the great Betty White, unlike its male counterpart, it can take a pounding. 

Really, I have no problems with being the second most hated person in the rohe.  But be prepared to debate why, and let it be for reasons other than my being a woman.

WIN SOME, LOSE SOME

Ngāti Kahu have had their first loss in the Waitangi Tribunal for some time.  The last time was when they were refused a hearing of their remedies application back in 2008.  But they never gave up then or since, and eventually got their hearing.  Engari before they can get a ruling on their remedies, this Tribunal has first had to rule on their urgency applications, and it’s turned them down. 

They’d asked the Tribunal to give them an urgent hearing and rule that the three deeds of settlement for Te Aupōuri, Te Rarawa and Ngāitakoto gave rise to significant and irreversible prejudice to Ngāti Kahu on several grounds.  The Tribunal focused mainly on three of those grounds; the proposed Crown allocation of forest lands in those deeds, the proposed redress over Te Oneroa-a-Tohe, and the proposed redress over conservation lands. 

In its decision, the Tribunal noted that it has concerns about the forest land allocations in those deeds which cut Ngāti Kahu completely out of the Takahue and peninsula blocks of the Aupōuri forest.  It also accepts that the beach and conservation land redress in those deeds falls well short of Ngāti Kahu’s aspirations.  But in the end it has ruled that Ngāti Kahu still have reasonable alternatives available to offset any potential prejudice to them. 

This decision is not entirely surprising but it is disappointing for Ngāti Kahu.  Urgencies have always been very hard to get, but this means that Te Paatu’s hapū mana whenua in the bulk of Te Make (Sweetwater), the peninsula forest blocks, Te Oneroa-a-Tohe and Kaimaumau are not able to be specifically provided for at this time through the Tribunal.

Still, as the Tribunal said, Ngāti Kahu have some reasonable alternatives before them, including waiting for its decision over the properties in the Ngāti Kahu remedies claim area.  There are other alternatives as well, like the fact that the people of Ngāti Kahu live on or near those lands, they are Ngāti Kahu lands, and they’ll be treated as such whether the Crown transfers ownership to Ngāti Kahu by way of paper exchange or not.  Kahore rānei koe i mohio ki tēnei i mua noa atu, i te wa ra ano i whakanohoia ai te tangata ki runga ki te whenua; He poto te wa e whakamanamana ai te tangata kino, a ko te hari o te tangata atuakore he wheriko kau?

The Tribunal’s next job will be to rule on Te Rarawa’s and Ngāti Tara’s separate remedies applications over some of the same lands in Ngāti Kahu’s remedies application.  Once it has dealt with those matters, it will finally be able to rule on Ngāti Kahu’s remedies.

This week Ngāti Kahu have had a loss, but they are not at a loss.  Wins and losses in themselves don’t last forever.  What does endure are lessons learnt, experience earned, hope tested, faith tried and character built.  These distinguish Ngāti Kahu as a winner, not a loser.