PREDICTING FUTURE TRENDS

Predicting future world trends is largely based on a good general knowledge and understanding of present events.  It also helps to have a working knowledge of the longterm interests of the global military industrial complex [MIC] whose members loosely rule the world between them.  Right now the US is their nominal centre, but China is competing hard for their patronage.  Regardless of who wins the super-power race, the control always remains with the MIC, and how they protect and progress their interests drives what happens in the world, including the Pacific where the Trans-Pacific partnership [TPP] is their engine room. 

In 2013, on the global scene, I predict the following:

The MIC will allow US-Chinese relations to worsen in a fight for fossil fuels as well as the status of super-power of the 21st century.  Much the same way as India was used against Pakistan from 1954 onwards, the US is already creating enemies for China, including Japan, the Phillipines and Indonesia, and even Thailand.  All of these countries are looking for offshore oil while the US is moving towards self-sufficiency through domestic fracking to release liquid natural gas [LNG].  In fact, part of the TPP’s purpose is  to establish LNG markets around the Pacific because the MIC are not yet done with fossil fuels.

Meanwhile China already has fairly close ties throughout the Pacific; Western Samoa and Fiji come to mind.  In 2013 we will see Tonga, the Cook Islands, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands either added to China’s stable, or being assiduously wooed to do so.  Although the US maintains a hold on Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Hawaii and American Samoa, a significant reason for its renewed focus on the TPP is driven by the realisation that it has lost a large part of the heart of the Pacific to China in the past decade.  Eventually every nation will have to align with one or the other of these two super-powers, and the configuration of those alignments will define the Cold War of the current century.

Instead of investing in true alternatives to fossil fuels, the MIC will also promote and fund the increased use of fracking to move the world's economies from reliance on petroleum to dependence on natural gas.  However, they will still need high octane military fuels.  Therefore in the Middle East, now that Iraq and Libya have fallen into their hands, Iran and its oilfields will be the next to fall.  That will temporarily satisfy them until later in the decade, which is when Syria will fall.

In Europe the only economy with any robustness is Germany, but it needs cheap energy.  Conveniently Russia lies on its borders with all the energy required, with pipelines from the northern territories through to Afghanistan, and with plenty of labour which is both skilled and cheap.  Therefore we’ll see a lot of that Russian energy redirected to Germany from 2013 onwards so that the MIC can continue to harvest Europe's human and material resources using German capital and Russian energy.

As wildcards I predict that the US Supreme Court will rule same sex marriage is constitutionally protected, and the US itself will move closer to being in a state of perpetual armed conflict within its own borders. 

Locally I predict that:

The Trans-Pacific partnership will be signed by New Zealand, Australia,  Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Canada, Malaysia, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Mexico, and the United States in 2013.  And within the decade our laws and courts will be aligned with what the MIC wants.  

Japan has expressed its desire to become a negotiating partner, and South Korea has been officially invited to join the negotiations.  So by the end of this decade the TPP will have Americanised the Pacific Rim the same way that the Monroe Doctrine did Southeast Asia.  That region itself will continue to grow and be an important partner for the US, to the exclusion of China.  As a result, also by the end of this decade, every Pacific country will either be part of the US or the Chinese economy. 

Water resources and food production will increasingly come under the MIC’s control in 2013.  There are few industries that can operate without power and water, and all the MIC need do to control our domestic industries and markets is ensure its political puppets place water bans at strategic times and places.  By the end of the decade commerical food production in this country will be completely corporatised.  That, combined with global warming will continue to drive food prices up in 2013 and beyond.  As a result, over the next decade food will become a currency in itself and the percentage of income spent on it, especially on protiens, will increase sharply.  In fact NZ-grown produce will continue to be cheaper for overseas markets than for those at home.   

Fulltime paid employment will continue to be a problem 2013 and thereafter.  High unemployment means there will be more people in part-time work, which in turn will kill most people’s hopes of home ownership.  By the end of the decade we will have become a rentier society.

Treaty settlements will continue being signed at a great rate in 2013, and iwi will continue to struggle to rebuild an economy off them and restore their people to a semblance of wellbeing while at the same time avoid making overly rash investments or overly conservative ones.  For example, the impact of inflation on current rates of return means that bank investments are losing value at an average of 1 – 3% per annum.  So the longer settling iwi keep their money in the bank, the more it will lose value.  But of course most won’t keep their money in the bank, especially those who are promising that the settlements represent a giant leap forward for their people’s social, educational and enviromental outcomes.  In any event, little or none of the cash will find its way down to the hapū and whānau, anymore than the fisheries’ settlement moneys did.  Also the need for Iwi to appeal to ever higher tiers of judiciary will continue to eat into cash reserves because, if they are to fight the Crown through its own courts, how else can they finance that fight?  Forcing Iwi to litigate against its political puppets is a deliberate MIC strategy which costs claimants hugely.  Within ten years most post-settlment governance entities (PSGEs) will be bankrupt or controlled by the MIC.

Education reform is certain and the sector will continue to be a battleground in 2013.  Within ten years MIC corporates will have set up Charter schools where the best teachers, sick of novapay glitches and workplace unrest, will flock to teach. 

The building of a US Marine training facility will be announced in 2013, and within ten years our servicemen will be serving in Guantanamo on a rotation basis and our nuclear-free zone will be either gone or honoured in the breach. 

ACC will be privatised and by the end of the decade our health care will also be in the hands of the MIC. 

The government will make kiwi-saver compulsory so that the retirement age doesn’t go up until the MIC insists on it. 

My wildcard local predictions are that there will be a number of natural disasters throughout the year, the MIC  will ensure that one of the big Australian banks disappears, and John Key won’t see this term out because, having done the damage for the MIC, he’ll be allowed to profit from his work for them.  

This is my final post for 2012, and my final prediction of future trends from 2013 onwards is that those whānau who get out of material debt, off the MIC grid, and into communion with the God of their understanding will do just fine. 

Ngā mihi mo te ra whānau a Ihu Karaiti ki a tātou katoa.

LAND OF THE BLIND

Land of the Blind is a dark political satire based on several incidents throughout history in which tyrannical rulers were overthrown by new leaders who proved to be just as bad, if not worse. The title is taken from the saying, "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king." It’s a metaphor for leadership based less on talent and more on lack.

I thought of that saying last month when Haami Piripi claimed that Margaret Mutu had told the Waitangi Tribunal Ōkakewai marae didn’t exist.  The truth of who said that can be heard 2 hours 7 minutes and 46 seconds into this recording of day 5, session 1 at Ngāti Kahu’s recent Tribunal hearings http://ngatikahu.iwi.nz/sites/default/files/Ng%C4%81ti%20Kahu%20Hearing%20-%20Day%205%20Session%201.mp3, and it wasn’t Margaret or anyone from Ngāti Kahu.

The above saying came to mind again last week when Mangu Awarau accused Ngāti Kahu of a ‘selfish campaign to increase their share of the settlement.’  The falseness of Mangu’s claim can be seen by comparing the agreements in principle reached by the Crown with Te Aupōuri in 2004, Te Rarawa in 2007 and Ngāti Kahu in 2008. 

In the Crown’s recent deeds of settlement Te Aupōuri went from $12m in 2004 to $21.040m in 2011, Te Rarawa went from $20m in 2007 to $33.840m in 2012, and Ngāi Takoto went from $0 to $21,040m.  Although the gaining of those settlement dollars was not worth the cession of mana and sovereignty required, good on those iwi for their gains.  But for Mangu to ignore where those gains originated and to instead accuse Ngāti Kahu of selfishness shows a sad lack. 

As for his claim that Ngāti Kahu failed to ‘front up to meetings, respond to phone calls and emails,’ he’s not only lacking, he’s wrong.  Unlike him Ngāti Kahu’s leaders go to every hui they agree to attend and record in writing the statements and positions they’ve been instructed by their people to make and take.  The fact that the Crown and he chose to ignore what Ngāti Kahu said, especially with regard to Rangiāniwaniwa, Te Make, Hukatere, Kaimaumau and Kaitāia, is another example of lack.  So too is his statement that Ngāti Kahu has been ‘dealt a harsh reminder of reality’ because the Tribunal has declined to hear its urgent application against those Crown deeds.  No wonder the Crown gets away with its pissant settlements when so-called leaders like Mangu accept a wrong decision as harsh reality rather than see it as worthy of being challenged. 

In his novel ‘Country of the Blind’ H. G. Wells tells of a mountaineer who falls down a mountain and arrives in a country where sight has been completely lost over time through a genetic disease. Seeing an opportunity to take advantage of the citizens, he recites the above quote over and over.  But the citizens other senses have sharpened and, having never experienced sight, they perceive him as either a madman or one with an overactive imagination. At any rate, he never gets to be their king.  Ka aroha kia ia mo tana hao nui kapō.